The 2021 Texas High School football season is in the book, and with the UIL relinquishment completed and dusted, the stage is set for the 2022 season. It’s a long wait until August, but if we know anything about Texas football there’s a lot to talk about.
This includes the annual Dave Campbell Texas Football Six-Year Program Rankings. Which have just been released. For the fourth season in a row, we are immersed in the power of the 1,200+ UIL Texas High School football program.
What are they? Here is a quote from the ranking introduction:
With data from Jerry Forrest at PigskinPrep.com, Dave Campbell’s Texas Football is proud to unveil the 2020 edition of its Texas High School Football 6-Year Program Rankings, a look at the relative strength of each UIL Texas High School football program. The goal of the project is to rank the relative strength of each program in Texas over the past six seasons.
Why six seasons? A six-year sample provides a static measure of a program as opposed to an individual squad – six years representing one-and-a-half graduation cycles, minimizing the impact of single transcendental classes on athletes. In short: good programs have a great team of one or two years, but great programs have a great team, like six years.
The rankings are based on a formula that considers the following five criteria:
Games won – a team wins as many games as possible (96 for 11-person team, 90 for 6-person team); So, a team can win the maximum number of games, how many can win?
Win percentage – How many games did a team win?
10-Win Season – In six seasons, how many teams have won 10 games?
State Championship – How many state titles does a team win?
Presence of State Championship Games – How many state championship games did a team play?
The criterion is set against the 100-point scale, where a perfect six-year run – 96-0 (or 90-0 for a six-member team) would result in a six-nation championship score of 100, and an absolutely tragic six-year run. – 0-98 (or 0-90 for a six member team) – Results will be nil.
This year’s rankings reflect the 2016 to 2021 season; Last year’s rankings reflected the 2015 to 2020 season. Please note: To qualify for this ranking, a team must play six varsity seasons. As a result, teams like Alvin Shadow Creek, Bridgeland, Katie Peto will not be in this ranking.
DCTF subscribers can see the full ranking – all 1,202 teams – right here! After turning heads in the data, here are some key points from our fourth annual six-year program rankings.
Stability at the top
If you want to find something to talk about, you should probably look beyond the top 10. The top two – Aledo and Carthage – respectively, remained unchanged, and among last year’s top ten teams, there was only one exit and one new entry, as Stron rose 17 spots to No. 9 when the Canadians dropped ten spots due to their significant 2015 state title season off. Dropped to number 17. There is a bit more action in the top 25, with teams like No. 14 Duncanville and No. 20 Shiner joining the fight, but overall, the very top of the rankings has been crystallized quite well.
State champions jump
There is nothing better you can do to improve your program rankings than to win a state championship, and dozens of 2021 champions are reaping the benefits. 6A Division I state champions Galena Park North Shore are two spots at No. 7, and although this may seem like a small step, keep in mind that they have cycled away from their 2015 title. This is continuity. 6A Division II champion Austin Westlake has risen three places to No. 5 again after losing a state finalist appearance in 2015. In 5A Division I, Katie Peto is ineligible for the rankings because the Panthers have not played in six seasons (more on them later). In 4A, Stephenville of Division I has taken a huge step – 307 spots have risen to 97 – while Division II has risen to the top 100 with 60 – spot 65. Lorena broke the long state championship drought in 3A Division I and jumped 185 spots to rise to 89th. In 3A Division II, Franklin’s first state championship moved up nine places to 34th, giving them a championship instead of a loss to Wascom in the 2015 title game. Down in 2A Division I, the Shiners jump 15 spots to the top 20, while 2A Division II champions Stratford are 31 spots above 41. And in the six-man rankings, 1A Division I champion Westbrook ranks 129th above 280 spots (despite four defeats, the most by state champions in eight years), and 1A Division II champion Stron ranks 9th.
Welcome to the event
Remember: you must be close to six varsity seasons before you can qualify for the six-year playoff rankings. Because this is an odd-numbered year, we can welcome ten new teams into the rankings, four of which have cracked the top half: No. 60 Corpus Christi Veterans Memorial, No. 95 Midlothian Heritage, No. 307 Frisco Ready and No. 333 Gorman.
Next up ..
With 32 teams playing in 2021 not listed, teams are still waiting their turn to rise in the rankings. The top five will be Alvin Shadow Creek, Katie Peto, Bridgesland, San Antonio Harlan and San Antonio Southwest Legacy.
Which teams have benefited the most by replacing the 2015 season with 2021? The biggest gainers in this year’s rankings are: No. 647 Carizo Springs (446 Spots Above), No. 439 Quinlan Ford (445 Spots), No. 557 Lubbock Roosevelt (445 Spots), 680 Frisco Liberty (410 Spots Above) and No. 603 Hill. (Above 408 spots).
..And taking Tumble
Of course, it’s not all sun and daffodils for everyone. The fastest decliners in this year’s rankings are: Richmond George Ranch at 622 (460 spots below), Howe at 1,056 (444 spots below), Southland at 1,132 (422 spots), 1,062 North Mesquite (414 spots below) and Jare at 1,104 Below).
Other notable tidbits
The highest ranked team in Class 6A is No. 5 Austin Westlake (like last year); In Class 5A, it’s No. 1 Aledo (like last year); In Class 4A, it’s Carthage No. 2 (like last year); In Class 3A, it’s No. 4 Gunter (it was Canadian last year); In Class 2A, it’s No. 3 Mart (like last year); And in Class 1A, it’s Stron No. 9 (last year, it was Richland Springs).
Highest ranked team with exactly the same summary: no. 79 Holland and Van are both 57-17 in four 10-win seasons in the last six years, but have not appeared in a title game.
Highest ranked team without a state championship in the last six years: No. 14 Duncanville.
Highest ranked team without a title game in the last six years: No. 38 Geronimo Navarro.
Top-ranked team without a season in the last six 10-win: No. 305 El Paso Andres.